But thus, and joining us, we have David Ryan, three time U.S. investing champion, so great  to be here with you all.  Good morning.  Thank you.  Good morning.  And we have our IVD friends in the background helping us answer questions as usual.  And we'll get through as many of those as we can throughout our next 90 minutes together.  We cannot get to all of your questions, even though we wish we could.  Also you only see the answered questions, not the hundreds of unanswered questions that  are getting submitted every day.  But we do our best to focus on stocks and strategies that are most relevant to the current  market.  Also regarding the Q&A, IBD does not provide any individualized or personal investment  advice, so we can't answer any questions that reflect your individual situation needs  or objectives.  So, please make sure when you're asking a question that you don't give us any information  about your personal situation or your portfolio holdings and don't disclose what you own.  IVD Live is for informational and educational purposes only.  Please make sure to do your own research before making any trades as we are not making  trade recommendations.  Also, I want to remind everyone that we've got a great FAQ page at investors.com slash  IBD Live FAQ with tons of great resources there, including Justin's weekly industry group  spreadsheet, our monthly guest lineup, links to tons of great explainer articles and  much more.  So, with all of that, let's go ahead and get started with our show here and get some  stickers from our panel.  So, starting with you, Arnie, what do you want us to take a look at today?  Morning, Rachel.  Absolutely.  Doing some research out there.  Obviously, there's very slim pickings out there.  But once Stocktis showed up on the Gro215 year pivot is Stocktip ticker DRS Leonardo DRS  Inc in the aerospace defense industry.  Okay.  Yep.  There are definitely some names in there worth looking at.  We'll get to that.  And David, tell me what are you looking at today?  What am I looking at?  I really couldn't find a ticker that I really thought was set up nicely, so I'm just  going to say cash.  And I'll discuss the reasons why cash is an option.  And there are many times where you should have a lot of cash, so I've got a few points  to go over on that.  All right.  Well, looking forward to that discussion with you.  And before we get to analyzing Arnie's ticker, many other tickers and hearing from you  on that, we are going to go ahead and hand it over to Ed Carson to give us a rundown on  the news.  Take it away, Ed.  Yeah.  Good morning, everyone.  Butchers are not looking great.  SPY, down 0.5% in this, and the S&P almost got above its 50-day line, but it's going  to back away from that.  The NASDAQ 100, that is down 0.6 right now.  So that one was a leader, and the NASDAQ's probably down something similar.  IWM for the Russell 2000, that is down 1.2%, so that may go back underneath the 50-day  line.  Once again, and the Dow is down 0.8 as well.  When your treasure yield is up to 4.14%, so that is popping up, and you can see a pretty  big increase over this week, understanding a lot of things going on, so rising up there,  crude oil.  So if you look at USO, crude oil is up more than 3% to above $77 a barrel.  This might be a 52-week high or a 52-week closing high, at the very least, if we traded  around here.  It was off either off the coast of Iraq or Kuwait, I'm not exactly sure, so it's pretty  far north in the Persian Gulf, and it's also that it's not clear what happened.  I think a small boat may have collided, it was one of those small boats coming with explosives  and hitting it, but in any case, that just raises the tensions.  Even if we knock out the missiles, which we're increasingly doing, the US military, there's  drones, there's just these little asymmetrical kind of attacks.  Those claims pretty much in line, 213,000, versus estimated 215,000, layoff announcements  from Challenger.  This is what companies say they're going to lay off 48,307 down 55% from January and 72%  versus your earlier productivity.  This is our first reading on Q4, 2.8% annual rate, higher than expected of 1.9%, the prior  was revised up, which was already very strong, revised up to 5.2%.  Again, productivity is like the ultimate thing.  This is where you can get, if you talk about economic growth, wage growth, long-term productivity  growth is where it's at.  Unit labor costs, which is counter to that, 2.8% increase after a prior revised 1.8% increase,  1.8% decline in Q3.  Broadcom, if you go to AVGO, beat views.  29% revenue gain, I think there was a slight acceleration again, AI revenue doubled and  the company guided up on Q2 revenue and so on.  This day made custom AI chips, I also did a lot of software too, let's be clear, but  that is something that is something out there.  Other chip makers aren't necessarily rising on this news and there's obviously the futures  are down.  One thing that Broadcom said is that they basically talking about the interconnects between data  centers, between the data centers, they sort of went on the side of copper versus optical  gear for now, so that is good news for CRDO, but not good news for, and this one was  up like 8% pre-market, where light, LITE and COAHR, which are more in the optical, those  were down.  Of course, there's other reasons why they'd be down, the market is down.  But there's that.  Meanwhile, on a related note, Sienna, which does optical gear, so they might also be affected  by that, but they add earnings.  Beat views, like more than double their earnings, their revenue growth was 34%, guided up on Q2  and full year revenue, but this is still down.  Of course, again, this stock has tripled in basically the last six months, so you have  to keep that in mind.  Burlington, BURL, beat views, slightly beat on revenue, 11%, comms are up 4%, guided in  line for 2026.  Burling, I mean, sorry, BJ, BJ's wholesale beat slightly, 6% revenue gain, 1.6%  comps gain, guided low though on 2026, EPS, Costco, a report tonight, that's just something  to, you know, out there.  And while we're here, we might as well mention Marvel, which also does custom AI chips  like Broadcom, they will report tonight as well.  Marvel was actually rising a little bit because of Broadcom.  Let's see here.  VSCO, Victoria Secret, beat views, slightly beat on revenue.  I thought I'd guided up on Q1 and 2026 revenue, but the stock is down, so obviously something  was in there that was negative.  AEO, American Eagle, beat views, 10% revenue gain, comps up 8%, that's mostly due to  its airy thing, but gross margins fell on tariffs and mark downs, so that one's down pretty  sharply.  American Stanley MS is going to cut 2,500 jobs, 3% of the total with the cuts across  all regions, Wall Street Journal reported.  Sting, STNG, this is Scorpio Tankers, it's going to stealth, sell 3 tankers and charter  out a couple more, Octa, cybersecurity firm, beat views, 12% revenue gain, Q1 guidance  was light, guided up on full year revenue, obviously the stock has been down a lot, so  I might be rising in part to go to that, Viva, the bio life sciences, software maker,  beat views, 16% revenue gain, guided up, BLLN, billion to one, easily beat on EPS, beat  on revenue, 113%, guided up on full year revenue, BLLN, so this one often doesn't trade  that much before the open, so we'll see, I saw it all over the place in the pre-market.  JD.com, missed views, 1.5%, revenue decline, e-commerce is sort of revenues to  down, they're spending a ton on food delivery, that's hurting them, Dave, they had strong  guidance yesterday, priced $175 million convertible debt offering today, so it's still rising  on that, Robin Hood is going to do a new platinum invite only credit card, 695 annual fees,  I was trying to compete with the top cards, Robin Hood Hood, which is used to be for these  Gen Zers who had no money, obviously they've gone up a little more upscale now on terms of who  they're trying to appeal to. Berkshire Hathaway, BRKB, is buying back shares of A and B,  they hadn't done that for quite a while, for several quarters, so that's happening.  IPI, Intrepid Potash, easily beat on EPS and revenue, 36% revenue gain, so IPI is doing well,  some of those needs have been doing well, IREN, it's going to, it's filed at the market equity  program of up to $6 billion, they're also buying 50,000 black well chips, so now it'll have a  total of 150 GPUs, so we'll say about that, BYD, BYDDF, they announced their second generation  battery and flash charging, so these charging things that can go to 1.5 gigahertz charging,  so they're claiming five minutes to go from 10% to 70%, nine minutes to go from 10% to 97%,  they did charging for like 30% minus Celsius for 24 hours, the battery, and it's still charged up  in 12 minutes from 20% to 97, so they're really pushing that and the gigahertz are going to do a ton  of flash chargers, BYD has been getting killed at the domestic market, completely killed,  so they're really hoping to do this, they're going to roll out a bunch of  companies, vehicles with these blight batteries and stuff, so we'll see, again, every  eD maker of worth its salt in China is rolling out new models and tech, except for one,  of course, but so I don't know how impressive, it still seems like this is impressive stuff,  but you know, it's hard to know because everybody is rolling out new stuff at this time of the year,  and that's what I have for you this morning. All right, well thank you very much for that,  all right, well, we're going to go over and take a look at the overall market now, so I'm  going to just do a quick review, kind of what we've been seeing yesterday, on Wednesday we saw  the NASDAQ take back that 1% loss that we saw on Tuesday, we saw it close just slightly below  the 21-day line and right near, kind of near highs of the day, we did see that pink rally  down Tuesday, which is where an index closes lower, but in the upper half of its daily price range,  and that kind of implies the start of a potential rally, and Wednesday's action definitely followed  through, but it's really hard to be, you know, excited about any kind of uptrend potential at this  moment because we've got a lot of levels to clear, we've got such an uncertain environment,  and just to highlight Mike Webster's comment on yesterday's IBD Live show, he called this  environment a dangerous one, and that it's just been really hard to buy on strength the last few  months, so David Ryan, welcome to the Thursday show. I'd love to hear how you're making sense of  the market action over the last, you know, one and a half weeks since you've been on with us.  Oh, well, I don't like the action, it's a very, very difficult market, and really it's been this  this way since all the way back in October, you know, we had a great uptrend, all the averages were  above the moving, all the, yeah, the indexes were above the moving averages, but now we're getting  into this back and forth, back and forth, and it's an environment, and that's why I didn't come  up with a ticker symbol, it's an environment where you really should have a tremendous amount of cash,  unless you can find exactly the right, you know, the right stocks to, to get into, but even  even the ones that have had good uptrends can get hit so hard, I mean, you just take some of the  gold stocks that that were roaring into new high ground or coming back up to test their highs,  well, they got hit very, very hard on, I guess that was on Monday, and so there, and even that,  I mean, even that pattern, if you look at that, and you got hit back in January from, you know,  500 down to, you know, 422, and then you rallied up, which is kind of a weaker, it almost looks like  a kind of a weak rally on lower volume, and then gets hit again, so, and you're finding that in  a lot of different areas, and then they've been, and they've run the, the oil stocks, a lot of those  have done well, and maybe those are a bit extended now, and they've even, they've even run consumer  staples, and so I'm kind of searching around trying to, okay, what's the next group, what's  going to start working, and I'm really kind of striking out into where to go to, and so I, the,  the most, one of the most important things that Bill did in developing this discipline, and what's  so great about this discipline is that, is that it gets you into the market when things are set  up and things are starting to break out and follow through, and it also gets you out of the  market when things are breaking down and rolling over and, you know, falling through moving averages,  and so we're at a time where I'm, you know, if you're disciplined and you're sticking to the  different, you know, characteristics that he talked about, you probably won't be finding much  that is working, and that just, that just moves you over to cash, and so that's, that's where I think  we should be, we should be sitting, it's sitting out, watching, continuing the update lists,  continuing to look for setups, and sooner or later, you know, maybe it'll be next week, maybe  it'll be three months from now, but stocks will start showing up again that have the characteristics  we like to find, and that's when you go, but there are, there are absolutely times where you just  got to sit on your hands and, and really do nothing. Yeah, I mean, it's kind of felt like a,  a sit on your hands type of situation for, for a while now, and we, we know that eventually  things change, you know, we'll, we'll get, we'll break out of this either into a corrective  downturn or we will hit another uptrend again, but it does make sense to sit out for, for a minute  and, and not try to chase things or, or force things as you were saying, so. Yeah, and, and the other  thing is, if you have stocks that you bought at much lower prices and they're still above their  major moving averages, you can, there's no problem in staying with those, and, but if they start  breaking 200 day moving averages and the stock is starting to roll and, and hit new lows, you know,  you've got to, at some point, you know, sell, sell positions or at least, or at least cut them back  because I can't tell you how many times in the 2000, 2000 and three period, people came up to me as  I was giving in different seminars and such, that they would say, you know, I made so much money  in the .com error, but, and it, it, they always start with that same line, but they gave it all back.  A, a, a sell discipline is as important as a buy discipline. And so you really have to have the,  you know, you really have to know when to start selling stocks and when to start raising cash.  Absolutely. Yeah. And your, your exposure right now is low. I mean, the recommended IBD  exposures between 40 and 60%, but you're, you're keeping it low. Yeah, I'm, yeah, no, I'm, I'm  probably 10% invested. And these are smaller positions. And then, and really that's what you should  do when, if you, if you're style, no matter if it's longer term or short term, if, if it's not  working, if you've had a number of trades in a row that, that end up with, with losses, start,  start slowing down. Don't go after everything that, every breakout or try to force money into  the market, try smaller positions. Yeah. And, and, and, and just take it, take it much, much slower,  because you just don't want to keep on forcing and forcing and forcing, because what happens is  you start getting chopped up. And I, I did this in, I mean, I mean, we want to go way back in 1982,  August of 82, the big bull market started. And I had a great move. I had had an account that  went from 60,000, sorry, 30,000 to over 60. And during that August through, I guess it lasted  into, into, probably spring of, night of 1983. But then from 1983, all the way into 1984,  the market got very, very choppy. And I kept on trying to buy a breakout. And they just didn't work,  didn't work. I took that account from 60,000 all the way back to, all the way to under 20,000  dollars. And I learned the lesson that when, when things are not working out, you just stop or  cut back, hold cash until really great setup start, start, start happening.  It's just about being, being patient. And, yeah, it won't be like this forever. No.  And David, can we also get a status update on what's happening with the innovator IBD 50 index?  I believe there's some important updates for shareholders and people interested.  Yeah. Well, yeah, Goldman Sachs is buying out innovator capital management. And that includes  the, the innovator IBD funds, which is FFTY and BOUT. And I'm, I'm part of a group called  capital force ETFs that are actually going to be buying those, those two ETFs. So right now,  if there's anybody out there that has, that has money in either FFTY or BOUT, you should be receiving  a proxy in the mail or by email. And, and we'd like you to vote yes. So, so we could take over those  funds. And, and, and what we're doing right now is just reviewing the process, how the stocks are  picked and, and just looking at the, the whole structure of those ETFs and possibly making changes  in the future. But the most important thing is if you are a, a shareholder in those is to  fill out those proxies, send them in so we can make this transfer from innovator to a capital force.  All right. Well, we will try to keep everyone posted on the timing of everything with regards to  that. But yeah, thank you for those updates. Can I quickly jump in? Sure. If anyone wants more  information, just let us know in the Q&A. I do have a web link for you that spells out  some more details. It is the capital force ETF website. And you can find more information there.  Very good. Thank you, Ali. Thank you. All right. Well, we'll move over to the rest of the panel  to get other thoughts here before we get into stock analysis. So Ed, how are you holding up  right now? And, uh, you know, what areas of the market do you think we could be looking at if any  or is it, are you kind of with David Ryan here? Just hang out and cash. Yeah. I mean,  look, there are times like last year when just just think about last year. When was the time to be  making money? Well, he said, you buy in April, May, June and then it ran up. Oh, look, look at that  nice. You just focus on this right now. There was that nice run up from April to October.  That was when you wanted to be heavily involved. I mean, especially from May on. Okay, we got this  power trend. We're going boom, boom, boom. That's where you made the money. You didn't want to be  in the market from February to April of 2025. That's when we had the deep seek tariff, you know, sell off.  And the last few months have not been good. In fact, it's been, it's been worse than the bear market  because things are working. Some things are working. So keeps on teasing people. You know, it's,  it's like, uh, it's like the mythical sirens, luring sailors in and then crashing on the rocks,  you know, kind of thing because it's like there are, you know, there are real things. You look at RSP.  There are stocks that are, you know, there are RSP is pretty close to highs and we didn't have the,  you know, it's probably down today. I haven't looked, but, you know, okay, it's down a smidge. But it's  basically, it's, you know, that hasn't been doing badly. So there are things that are working. That's  the problem. Back in last April, you knew or back in last March, you knew things were going bad.  I mean, that was not a good time. I'm period. So, but in the thing is, there are times to be in.  It's like, I like to, like you say, I like to go on picnics. Nobody likes to go on picnics in the rain.  So when it's raining, don't go outside and demand to have a picnic. I mean, it's just, it's just as simple  as that. Wait for it to be sunny. I mean, it's like, it's, you know, and if it's, if it's, you know,  like growing up in Oregon, it would sometimes rain here. Then it's stop raining. Come back, come back,  you know, back and forth. You can chance it, but you don't know if you're going to get a maybe it'll  work out, maybe it won't. You know, if you make a bunch of buys, maybe a couple of them work.  That's great. But generally, it's just like, it's a lot of work for pennies, pennies and landlines.  And it's not. So yeah, if you do things, you have to be extremely disciplined to get out. But it's  just, but it's still, it's still so much hard work. It's just easier to be waiting for a better  market, you know, just, you know, for the most part, you know, I think aerospace looks good,  but that's partly, you know, there are things that are going on software-driven bounding, but most  of those stocks are in terrible shape. I think in a bad, choppy market, medicals often do well,  but again, but everything and set aside the Iran thing. Like if you go to the S&P, you know, we'll go  up down, you know, and you go up for a couple of days, then down for a couple of days. So it's hard  to make money on strength. So all of those things, it's just, you know, all the index, major  indexes are below their 50 day lines. There's just so many reasons not to get involved right now and  just, just wait for a better time. And that, that could happen soon. It could happen very soon.  On the other hand, if we get a couple more tankers to blow up and crude oil,  Brent crude goes to $100, you know, and US crude goes to $90, I mean, you know, then you start  worrying about, you know, real economic troubles around the world, you know, kind of thing. So,  I mean, you can go either way. It's just the fact that, yeah, things could get a lot better.  They could get a lot worse, or they could do what we've been doing for the last five months  and just sort of be choppy. Absolutely. Arnie, I'm going to move over to you. I was saying earlier,  our market exposure on IBD is recommended between 40 and 60%. Where are you sitting with that?  How are you feeling right now? Yeah, Rachel. I'm on margin, actually.  Just kidding. I'm not. I'm more. Yeah.  No, it's just, you know, just being cautious. Like last week, we've been living under that 50,  looking at the NASDAQ. And that's one of the indices I look at. I follow. You can see it in the  SPX as well, living under the 50 day. Really, there's hurdles that we have to get over. The 21 day  and the 50 day, but big, the 50 day, the 50 day is showing to be resistance right now  for a lot of these major indices. With that said, this is a very choppy market,  protect your mental capital. You know, and in the end, you know, you want to, you know,  I'm a big believer and I love saying this, you know, instead of making money, I want to make  dollars. And if you don't see any type of feedback from your portfolio, something is wrong.  Okay. You need to tell yourself that now, as far as, you know, come February and early March,  historically speaking, they've been weak performers. We'll see what happens. And David said,  it ain't happened next week. It could happen three months from now. Who knows, right? You always  want to be better. And if you feel like the market's shifting or you, you see signs of it, the  market, this is what you're interpreting. Pilot positions, small positions. You don't have  to plunge it in and pick it and get exposed that too big. I have too much exposure in the market.  Slowly going to this market, but it's a tough market right now. And these are the type of markets  that really, really can have a drastic effect, not only on your portfolio, but also on the mental  capital. You lose confidence. It can have an effect. It's happened me a couple of times as well,  because I'm fighting on what I'm actually seeing. And I'm learning to, you know, okay, I'm seeing  this. It's under the 50 day. There's something wrong. Why is it not moving? But all in all,  right now, it's as far as my exposure rate, I'm probably closer to 40, 50 for my short-term  portfolio. But I will say this, I will say this, looking at the NASDAQ, Rachel, I did like seeing that  that upside reversal that we saw the other day, the pink day. I did find that very constructive.  But, you know, one day it doesn't make a trend. It's holding up very nicely right now. We'll see.  I have a feeling this may test the 50 day again in the fines resistance. It could get slapped